Secondo Fitch le Banche Tedesche sono esposte sulla Grecia... ma non troppo... tipo che riavere indietro metà del denaro prestato alla repubblica ellenica sarebbe una "botta" che potrebbero gestire... mah... io i conti come Fitch ( e le altre sorelle agenzie di rating) non li so fare, ma non sarei così sereno in caso venisse ufficializzata la ristrutturazione del debito greco, per tutte le implicazioni indirette che avrebbe (non solamente quindi il dover iscrivere a bilancio quei numeri...)
“The worst consequence of any Greek sovereign default for German and other European banks would be in a sharp increase in general capital market and creditor risk aversion at a time when many banks are still in rehabilitation mode,” said Michael Dawson-Kropf, senior director in Fitch’s EMEA financial institutions group.
The ratings company said it “does not currently envisage” any rating action on German banks as a result of their direct exposure to Greece, but sees “high potential contagion risks” if there were any restructuring of Greek sovereign debt.
The report provided relief to equity markets, with U.S. and European stock markets subsequently edging higher. The euro EURUSD -0.16% trimmed a loss versus the U.S. dollar to change hands at $1.4072, down 0.1% from Tuesday.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2010, German banks had $26.3 billion of claims against Greek public-sector debt, according to the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, while France had claims of $19.8 billion.
A hypothetical 50% haircut of Greek sovereign exposure wouldn’t deplete banks’ capitalization to a level that would automatically trigger a ratings move, even for the more exposed banks, Fitch said.
“Substantial” amounts of Greek sovereign exposure lie with KfW, the German government-owned development bank, in its agency role servicing government and run-off institutions, where it’s backed by loss-absorption mechanisms from the German government, Fitch said.
Commerzbank AG is the commercial bank most exposed to overall Greek risk in absolute euro terms, Fitch said, while Deutsche Postbank is the most exposed as a proportion of regulatory equity.
German banks’ exposure to Greek economic risks through cross-border lending to Greek banks is “very limited,” Fitch said. Such lending is usually collateralized and the default risk is only modestly correlated to Greek sovereign risk, the report said, noting German banks don’t have banking subsidiaries in Greece.
